Hawkeye Wealth's Newsletter
THE BIRD'S EYE VIEW
The purpose of the Bird’s Eye View newsletter is to help our network achieve higher risk-adjusted returns by providing unique insights into the private real estate investment industry. Topics include current events and their impact on real estate, what strategies we believe will outperform, best practices in the industry, as well as what to watch out for when selecting deals to invest in.
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MOST RECENT INSIGHT
Introduction Election season is here, and while housing affordability and availability have taken a backseat to how Canada should approach its relationship with the United States, changes to housing policy still feature as central pillars of both the Conservative and Liberal party platforms. What makes their proposed changes particularly notable is that since the 1980s, the Federal Government has played a smaller role in housing compared to Municipal and Provincial governments, influencing markets indirectly through immigration and monetary policy. Those days look to be over, as both parties have introduced proposals that would see the Federal Government take a much more active role. In this edition of the Bird’s Eye View, we review the housing platforms for both the Conservative and Liberal parties, and offer our opinion on how these policies will impact development generally, and real estate investors specifically. Note: We recognize that other parties also have housing platforms, but for brevity, we are only covering the Conservative and Liberal platforms. Policies in Common Between Conservatives and Liberals Before we dive into the novel proposals from each party, we begin with three policies in common: 1. Elimination of GST on new homes Both parties have proposed to eliminate GST on new homes, but there is a massive difference in the size and scope of the two programs:
PREVIOUS INSIGHTS
Introduction Election season is here, and while housing affordability and availability have taken a backseat to how Canada should approach its relationship with the United States, changes to housing policy still feature as central pillars of both the Conservative and Liberal party platforms. What makes their proposed changes particularly notable is that since the 1980s, the Federal Government has played a smaller role in housing compared to Municipal and Provincial governments, influencing markets indirectly through immigration and monetary policy. Those days look to be over, as both parties have introduced proposals that would see the Federal Government take a much more active role. In this edition of the Bird’s Eye View, we review the housing platforms for both the Conservative and Liberal parties, and offer our opinion on how these policies will impact development generally, and real estate investors specifically. Note: We recognize that other parties also have housing platforms, but for brevity, we are only covering the Conservative and Liberal platforms. Policies in Common Between Conservatives and Liberals Before we dive into the novel proposals from each party, we begin with three policies in common: 1. Elimination of GST on new homes Both parties have proposed to eliminate GST on new homes, but there is a massive difference in the size and scope of the two programs:
Most investors would be thrilled with the outcomes forecasted in the CMHC 2025 Housing Market Outlook given the level of uncertainty ahead. The question is, how likely is CMHC to be right?
Demand is high and has nearly chewed through the supply overhang in many markets, which should result in rising rents and falling vacancies over the next few years.
While GDP isn’t a perfect predictor of housing prices, the two tend to run in the same direction. If we do in fact see a decline in GDP from 2024, it would take a unique set of circumstances to see anything more than flat housing prices in 2025.
It doesn’t take a genius to hypothesize that population decreases could cause rental rates and housing prices to soften over the next two years. However, a look at historical data shows that changes in population growth often don’t result in immediate housing price changes
While we will continue to watch and seek to understand how investors may be affected by who ends up in government and any resulting policy shifts, there is something reassuring about knowing that in the past, real estate has performed well for investors regardless of who is in power.
In this edition of the Bird's Eye View, we look at deal structure changes that developers are making to attract LP investors, and how these features are making deals more attractive on a risk-adjusted basis.
In this edition of the Bird’s Eye View, we cover how real estate prices have historically moved in falling rate environments and explore some of the perils both in forecasting rates and what prices will do as a result of changes in rates.
In this edition of the Bird’s Eye View, we review and analyze the 2024 Housing Market Outlook report, prepared by CMHC, where they forecast major price and rent increases in Canada over the next three years.
In this edition of the Bird’s Eye View, we provide summaries and commentary on federal budget initiatives through the lens of private real estate investment. We focus on items that have seen less commentary from media, such as the potential freeze of development cost charge increases in communities over 300,000 population, and the Public Lands for Homes Plan, parts of the recently released Solving the Housing Crisis: Canada’s Housing Plan .
